The Wings were going to carry the roster's weight on the back end - the necessary 12 forwards, an abundant 8 defensemen, and the two goalies - and training camp was suppose to help sort that out, but all it's done is confuse everyone MORE! Who's staying? Who's trade bait? Is anyone going to be able to clear waivers? Egads! It's CRAZY! So in only the second Duke It Out, and probably the most extensive to come ever (I'd die if I had to do another of these suckers), here comes MY opinions on who should stay, go, or drop down for a bit.
We start with Defensemen (and you shall see why I started at the middle of the pack, at the conclusion).
Jonathan Ericsson (#52), Kyle Quincey (#4), Andreas Lilja (#3), Brett Lebda (#22), and Derek Meech (#14)
Fighting for two spots - Chelios guaranteed #7, so fighting for/to keep #5/6/8
Perks: Okay so we have two vets who could be #3/4 anywhere but here (our #5/6 pair) in Lilja and Lebda. Lilja (who for some reason my fingers want to call Jilja, today) was a free-agent signing a few years back who just signed a 2-year extension in the off season, and Lebda was an undrafted college kid who we developed and was supposed to be a Junior Chelios (interestingly enough, he's a Chicago native, too). Welllll, he's not a Cheli clone, but Cheli's work ethic and fitness did rub off on the kid. Lilja is a solid shot blocker and penalty killer. Lebda has blazing speed to get that puck the hell outta there.
Of the kids, Ericsson is looking more and more like a top pair defenseman and he only started on the blue line his draft year. He's developing well in Grand Rapids - rocket of a point shot (101.5mph at the AHL All-Star game), big body to check offenders and block shots, as well as the nasty side if we need a pest knocked out (I previously linked it, but again won't hurt). Quincey has had a nice amount of experience in the playoffs as injuries brought him in for 2007. He's big, solid stay-at-home, and is ready and willing to fight if necessary (he spent his summer training with enforcer Aaron Downey). Meech is an all-around solid player that, right now, could be a #3/4, potentially #2, elsewhere. Yes, I am that high on his talents. He was a forward in juniors so he can double up front, he looks like Lidstrom at the point, and he is certainly not a defensive liability. When the Wings had a rash of injuries mid-season, he stepped up to the top pairing and owned it.
Downfalls: The two oldest guys are about at their potential. It's a bit depressing as Lilja has great size and could do way more damage than he does now. He also has a knack for turnovers that come back to bite us in the ass (see: 2007 WCF vs. Anaheim). Lebda's speed seems to only show towards the opposition's net, which often times leaves his defensive partner hanging out to dry, and he can't get back quick enough to correct any error he might've made - basically, poor judgement choices.
The kids haven't shown constant flaws yet... that I've seen. Ericsson's reason for not making the team is he is waiver exempt and is going to be making the same cash either place, but there isn't really a portion of his game to fault him on. Quincey isn't as physical as he should be even with the fight training, and he doesn't know when to pick the fights he does go into. There are signs that make me think he's going to be just like Lilja - the bad turnover here and there, good at shot blocking but shoddy at getting it out of the zone, unwilling to step up all the time. Meech's downfall... well personally I think he's an excellent, well rounded player. I just think some people picture him as soft (I don't buy it - he's just a generally nice guy who cares about his team's success more than his individual), and North American players aren't allowed to be soft in this era.
Rank: My choices to stay? Might surprise... might not. If you read everything above, it probably won't.
1. Derek Meech - he's skilled offensively and defensively, not to mention can double as a forward if someone goes down
2. Jonathan Ericsson - he won't get it this season, but there's not much to fault him on
3. Andreas Lilja - yes bad turnovers, but the leading shot blocker; I'd like to see him traded though as his salary is more than Quincey...
4. Kyle Quincey - potential to equal Lilja's job, but not quite there yet; if we end up needing the salary gone, Kyle should stay, but if there's a way to fit Andreas in, then do it
5. Brett Lebda - he's the odd-man-out in my book... a small defender with speed as his best and potentially only asset; with two years left on the contract, get what you can for him, he could have a bigger role with someone else
Now onto the forwards!
Darren Helm (#43), Ville Leino (#21), Darren McCarty (#25), and Aaron Downey (#44)
Fighting for one potential spot - dependent upon number of defensemen carried.
Perks: The vets, McCarty and Downey, are past their prime in their once precious lifeline - being an agitator/enforcer. But both provide a tremendous amount of leadership qualities and their own brand of energy. McCarty takes over "coaching" on the bench, giving the young guys pointers, discussing strategy with linemates, and many other little things coaches do. No different in the locker room - when he came in with two games left last season, it wasn't "too late" to take guys under his wing, he immediately started talking to the young guys and giving them tips he can give that come from 3 Cups' experience. One of those young guys? Darren Helm. The same Helm as below that is currently fighting for a roster spot at 21. Downey on the other hand, he's the energy guy. He's constantly cracking jokes in the locker room, causing chaos on the ice. Again, he's a veteran guy, so last season he hung out with the Black Aces during the playoffs and helped them out, even earning a nickname (which I have no idea where it came from) of "Darryl". He helped train with Quincey in the offseason, adding an element to young Q's game, proving his care for the team goes beyond the arena.
The young two, Helm and Leino, are both highly explosive players, but in their own way. Helm is a cruise missile on the ice, breaking from the defensive zone and putting a puck on net probably faster than Brett Lebda. He's a light guy, but he knows how to use what he has to play aggressive. He was supposed to be a replacement for Kris Draper when the Wings drafted Helm, but he looks to be even better than that - many have said his training camp performance, combined with calmness and poise in the Playoffs and a Cup to boot could put him on the second line of an other NHL team. He's much more than his projected "grinder" status! Leino on the other hand, is a perfect representation of what our scouts can find. Even Leino's own Finnish coach thought he wouldn't make it in the NHL, but Babcock is already singing his praises. The 25 year old Finn plays just like Dan Cleary does, and is sticking it out in preseason how Cleary earned his spot - they tried to work him to death but he keeps on getting better under the pressure. The puck, according to Babcock, follows Leino everywhere. And he learned right quick to go straight to the net. Result? Three goals, three assists in eight preseason games... and he was lucky if he had two of our top six dressed at any one night so there was no one making it a piece of cake for him!
Downfalls: Quickly, as this is getting WAY long, and I'm not sure anyone's still following... McCarty doesn't fight as effectively as he used to, and his speed isn't the greatest. If he shoots and isn't just out there making hits and potentially scuffles, he's a much better player. He needs to round out his tools some more. Downey has been taking too many bad penalties and hasn't always fought or fought at the right time. He's also slow of foot and gets lost behind the rush leaving his teammates 2-on-3 or 4 sometimes.
Helm is still young, just 21, and could develop a lot more in the minors. Playing, he is pretty well rounded and doesn't have one major downfall visible. He's quick on skates and with the stick so he's not a defensive liability, plays in corners, and knows where the net is. Leino's downfall is simply that he isn't 100% used to the size of the rink. Another that could be mentioned is his fearlessness in the corners - he just goes right in and often lands on his behind from not watching other larger opponents coming at him. As color commentator Mickey Redmond said one preseason telecast, "He's gonna get himself killed going in like that!". And sure some of those hits probably dizzied him up, but I think he might've gotten the message because I didn't see so many dangerous plays in that last preseason game versus Buffalo.
Rank:
1. Ville Leino - he adapted super quick, he's not giving up under the heavy asking of Coach, and that puck really DOES follow him; great hands, great along the boards, just a tad slow of foot but the hands make up for it
2 Darren McCarty - the veteran presence he provides is impossibly well placed, Babcock was leery last season when he was placed on the team, but Mac won him over with his knowledge of the game and ability to self-coach the kids; lack of fighting isn't an issue, the sight of him coming at you when you mess with one of his teammates is probably going to be enough
3. Aaron Downey - fewer perks than Helm, but he's more liable to drop the gloves than Mac now, and he has proven he can draw other teams' idiots to him instead of the stars of the team
4. Darren Helm - I love the kid, really I do, but he's SO young and could do SO much in the AHL it's ridiculous! We're talking top line night in and out, AHL All-Star, lead league in points. One more year then it will be IMPOSSIBLE to keep him out of the bigs.
So - with the team wanting a 22-man roster versus maximum 23 - do we keep a 13th forward or 8th defenseman? My vote goes to Ville Leino staying on as the #13. Such a workhorse! It's ridiculous. He has the chops, that's for sure. The management might want him to spend some time down to learn a bit more of this style hockey, but would he be okay with that? He has a clause that says he can go back to Finland, and on a one-year deal, we could easily see him elsewhere in the NHL next season if we don't keep him now.
EDIT 9:30am EDT, 10/7: A source claims the Wings are shopping Kyle Quincey around for a mid to low round draft pick, making Lilja and Lebda the #5 and 6 defensemen and Meech the #7 (who can double as a forward should they choose not to keep a #13). Chelios will take #8 when he's back from LTIR. Ericsson will start in Grand Rapids on the top pair. I assume there will be a 13th forward kept as well, salary dependent, but it looks like we were pretty much dead on for the defense portion of our analysis (minus Lebda)!
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